The vulnerability of lakes to climate change along an altitudinal gradient

Abstract Studies of future 21 st century climate warming in lakes along altitudinal gradients have been partially obscured by local atmospheric phenomena unresolved models. Here we forced the physical lake model Simstrat with locally downscaled models under three scenarios to investigate impact on 29 Swiss lakes, varying size an gradient. Results from worst-case scenario project substantial change at end duration ice-cover mid high altitude (?2 ?107 days), stratification (winter ?17 ?84 days, summer ?2 73 while lower and especially (present day mean annual air temperature 9 °C 3 °C) dimictic risk shift monomictic regimes (seven out eight lakes). Analysis further indicates that for many shifts mixing regime can be avoided adhering most stringent scenario.